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The Mainland China Investable Universe ⑦: How to Choose — A Decision Framework and a Pitfall Checklist

Part 7 (finale) of the Mainland China Investable Universe series: a decision framework for choosing instruments by the time horizon of your money and your risk tolerance, a reference portfolio structure, the ten pitfalls beginners fall into most often, and a minimal action list for going from 'knowing what you can buy' to 'actually starting.'

Asset AllocationInvesting BasicsPitfallsPortfolio Construction

The first six articles laid out the shelves, the rules, and the fees. This final one answers the original question: with so many instruments, how do I actually start?

Bucket your money by time horizon first, don’t pick instruments by return

A beginner’s first instinct when choosing instruments is to compare yields — that’s the wrong order. The correct first step is to divide your money into four buckets by when you’ll need it. The horizon determines how much risk you can bear:

  • The spending bucket (needed at any time): money market funds, bank T+0 wealth-management products. Returns just above 1%, but withdrawable anytime. Keep 3–6 months of living expenses here.
  • The short-term bucket (needed within 1–3 years): savings treasury bonds, pure bond funds, government bond reverse repo, fixed-income wealth-management products. The goal is to beat deposits while basically not losing money.
  • The long-term bucket (untouched for 5+ years): this is the admission ticket for equity assets — broad-based index ETFs, a small amount of convertible bonds, REITs. A-share bull and bear cycles are measured in years; if the money isn’t long enough, you’ll be forced to sell at the worst moment.
  • The locked bucket (used only in retirement): the ¥12,000/year private pension account allowance — fill it first if your marginal tax rate is above 10%.

The most common loss script — “buying stocks with money needed a year later, getting trapped at the lows, and being forced to cut losses” — is fundamentally not a selection error but a bucketing error. Get the horizon matching right, and a slightly wrong instrument choice only means earning a bit less, not breaking bones.

A reference structure for the long-term bucket

For the long-term bucket, here’s a purely illustrative structure (not investment advice — just showing how the shelves fit together):

  • Core 60%–80%: broad-based index ETFs (CSI 300 / CSI A500 / dividend-type), bought through regular fixed-amount investing or in phases, held for the long term.
  • Satellites 20%–40%: convertible bonds (the double-low approach), sector/theme ETFs, REITs, gold — allocated by your own research and interests, with no single satellite exceeding 10%–15% of the long-term money.

The core earns the market’s money; the satellites earn your insight’s money. If every satellite dies, the core is still there — the point of the structure is to let you dare to keep satellites small while staying in the market to learn.

Ten pitfalls, sidestepped one by one

  1. Chasing limit-ups and acting on tips: any news you can hear is already priced in. In the theme-stock game, retail investors are the liquidity providers.
  2. Treating bond funds as deposits: bond funds do fall — in the November 2022 redemption wave, even short-term bond funds had consecutive drawdowns. Check the contract for whether it can invest in convertible bonds and stocks.
  3. Buying QDII at high premiums: a cross-border ETF/QDII trading at a 5%+ on-exchange premium means a near-certain loss when the premium converges. Glance at the IOPV/NAV before buying.
  4. Ignoring forced redemption on high-priced convertible bonds: above ¥150 there is no “floor below,” and a forced-redemption announcement cuts the price off at the ankles. If you hold convertible bonds, you must watch the announcements.
  5. Chasing REITs at high premiums: buying an asset with an 8% distribution yield at a 40% premium means handing five years of dividends to the seller in advance.
  6. Frequent trading: Part 6 did the math — turning over ten times a year costs about 1% in friction, while most people’s market-timing contribution is negative.
  7. Buying funds off the championship list: last year’s champion fund is ground zero for mean reversion. Choose an index, or a manager whose logic you can articulate.
  8. Treating gold jewelry as an investment: craftsmanship fees and brand premiums go to zero at resale. Investment bars and gold ETFs are gold.
  9. Touching “wealth-management products” you don’t understand: a fixed-income product yielding noticeably more than its peers is pricing in risk with the excess. Since the new asset-management rules, there are no guaranteed-return wealth-management products (except deposits).
  10. Leverage: margin financing, off-exchange leveraged funding, borrowing to invest. Leverage doesn’t create returns — it amplifies volatility, and volatility destroys discipline.

The minimal action list

If, after finishing the series, you want to do something this week, follow this order:

  1. Open a brokerage account (ID card + bank card, ten minutes), and while you’re at it, negotiate the commission down to 0.01%–0.015% including regulatory fees.
  2. Complete your first trade — one lot of the cheapest ETF or a low-priced stock — so your “24 months of trading experience” starts counting from tomorrow.
  3. Move your spending bucket into a money market fund or reverse repo, and build the habit of never letting idle cash lie around.
  4. Write a one-page plan for the long-term bucket: what to buy, in what proportions, and what to do if it falls by how much. The act of writing it down matters more than the plan’s contents.
  5. If your marginal tax rate is above 10%, go to a bank and open a private pension account.

At this point, the question “what can you buy in mainland China” is fully answered. But knowing the shelves is only the starting point — the same ETFs and convertible bonds, bought and sold with or without rule-based methods, produce wildly different long-term outcomes. The next series in this site’s quant section, A-Share Quant in Practice: From Data to Live Trading (placeholder already reserved), picks up right here: free data, backtesting, ETF rotation, the convertible-bond double-low strategy, grid trading, and a survival guide for strategies under T+1 and price-limit constraints.

The entire series is a knowledge summary and does not constitute investment advice. Market rules keep evolving — refer to the latest information from exchanges, regulators, and product announcements.

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